India’s quick commerce sector is experiencing explosive growth, with demand surging for some operators. Yet, the aggressive moves by Flipkart and Amazon are escalating competition in a space already grappling with thin margins.
Flipkart, a major e-commerce player in India, launched its quick commerce service, Flipkart Minutes, in August 2024, promising deliveries within 10 minutes. Initially trailing local rivals like Blinkit, Swiggy, and Zepto, Flipkart has rapidly expanded its footprint. This week, it surpassed 800 dark stores, with plans to double that count by the end of 2026, according to UBS.
The entire market now hosts over 6,000 dark stores, leading to significant overlap in major urban centers and intensifying rivalry, as noted in a recent Bernstein report. This competitive strain is evident in strategic shifts, such as the departure of a Swiggy co-founder this week, as firms reassess their approaches amid rising costs and competition.
Flipkart’s network remains smaller than market leader Blinkit, which operates over 2,200 dark stores, per Bernstein. However, Flipkart is pursuing a different growth strategy by expanding beyond major cities. Blinkit, in contrast, aims to scale to 3,000 dark stores by 2027 while concentrating on its top 10 urban markets.
“Flipkart has this Walmart DNA,” said Satish Meena, founder of Gurugram-based consumer insights firm Datum Intelligence. “Walmart’s DNA is always about expanding the total addressable opportunity to dominate by expanding the market.”
This strategy is already yielding results. A source familiar with the matter revealed that 25–30% of Flipkart’s quick commerce orders now originate from small towns, with orders per dark store growing approximately 25% month-on-month.
Despite this expansion, quick commerce demand remains heavily concentrated in larger cities. Bernstein highlights that higher population densities in big cities support faster deliveries and better dark store utilization, driving most of the current demand. The top eight Indian cities account for over 3,800 dark stores operated by the five largest players, with about 3,600 potentially profitable, according to the same report.
“Metro markets obviously are better in return ratios, better in profitability because of higher throughput,” said Karan Taurani, executive vice president at Elara Capital, a London-headquartered investment bank and brokerage firm. “This business is all about higher throughput, and for now, that is coming largely from metro markets.”
Analysts see long-term potential beyond major urban centers. “Non-metros (small towns) can give a surge if companies expand beyond groceries and offer a wider range of items at faster speeds,” said Datum’s Satish Meena. “Flipkart is betting on that.”
Scaling into smaller towns, however, requires patience. Quick commerce is currently viable in about 125 cities, with dark stores typically taking six to 12 months to reach maturity and profitability, noted Aditya Soman, a senior research analyst at CLSA, a Hong Kong-based brokerage. Many newer stores in these areas are still in the ramp-up phase.
Amazon, which entered India’s quick commerce market in late 2024 shortly after Flipkart’s debut, is also expanding its presence. UBS reports that the e-commerce giant has rolled out around 450–500 dark stores, with about 330–370 currently operational, as it taps into growing demand for rapid deliveries.
Flipkart is not solely relying on physical expansion to compete; it is also deploying aggressive pricing tactics. The company offers some of the highest discounts in the segment—around 23–24% across categories, based on a sample basket analyzed by Jefferies last month—aiming to attract users in a market where price and convenience are key demand drivers.
This pressure is taking a toll on incumbents. Brokerage firm JM Financial recently warned that Swiggy’s quick commerce business is caught in a “growth-versus-profitability deadlock” and risks destroying shareholder value, suggesting that a takeover by a larger, better-capitalized player might be the best outcome for investors.
Market performance reflects these challenges. Shares of Eternal, which owns Blinkit, have declined about 15% so far this year, while Swiggy has fallen over 29%, even as Zepto prepares to go public on Indian stock exchanges later this year.
The entry and expansion of giants like Flipkart and Amazon are reshaping the competitive landscape. “Quick commerce is no longer in a startup phase—it has become a big players’ game,” said Ankur Bisen, a senior partner at retail consultancy Technopak Advisors. He added that the sector’s economics and limited differentiation could eventually drive consolidation, as companies compete for the same customers in a discount-heavy market.
Amazon, Flipkart, and Swiggy did not respond to requests for comment. Eternal declined to comment, while Zepto said it could not comment due to a silent period following its IPO filing.
